Oscar Predictions Update – The BAFTA Effect

The Oscars 2014 Data

Last month I introduced to you my amazing new statistical approach for predicting the Oscar winners. Amazing, new, and stolen from Nate Silver. With the BAFTAs having been announced we now have much more fleshed out statistics and the predictions are becoming ever more clear. Sadly my 100% foolproof prediction technique seems to be agreeing with the bookmakers’ picks so any attempt for me to get rich is not going to happen.

Below are my updated charts (oooh charts!) which look at each category in turn, just select the category you want to look at from the drop down menu (oooh drop down menu!). If you want to read about the methodology have a look at the previous post.


Mild Concern Oscar Predictions 2014

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave

Already the frontrunner last month 12 Years a Slave now holds the BAFTA in this most important category and so looks unbeatable at the Oscar ceremony. Start practising your speech Steve McQueen.


Another predicted winner that was set for Oscar success without the need for BAFTA support. Now with the golden mask secured Gravity is statistically unbeatable… let’s just hope the voters realise my integrity is at stake.

Actor in a Leading Role
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Every nominee apart from Christian Bale has won at least one precursor award for this category but, regardless of Chiwetel Ejiofor’s win last night, Matthew McConaughey has won more of the most accurate award predictors. With its British skew BAFTA only predicts this category 54% of the time.

Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Cate Blanchett has continued to gather awards for her role in Blue Jasmine and this success is giving her the most striking statistic of all with an 80% chance of winning the Oscar. Poor Judi Dench might as well stay at home.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

While the BAFTA went to the deserving newcomer Barkhad Abdi from Captain Phillips it’s not enough to take on Jared Leto’s near clean sweep for Dallas Buyers Club which leaves him more likely to win than not.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle

For now at least. The BAFTA win for Lawrence, with its 77% accuracy rating, has pushed her ahead of former frontrunner Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave. The stats are close though and if Nyong’o can win the Independent Spirit award the day before the Oscars (an award Lawrence is not nominated for) she will JUST gain the lead. Far too close to call this one.

Original Screenplay
Spike Jonze for Her

Forget the BAFTAs for a minute as the WGA awards have also taken place recently and they are key predictor when it comes to the writing category, most likely as the two voting panels will have a large overlap. As such the WGA win for Her has let it increase its lead slightly, though with a probability of victory as low as 36% American Hustle could steal the show.

Adapted Screenplay
Billy Ray for Captain Phillips

Captain Phillips winning the WGA award and Philomena the BAFTA has given this already contentious category a little shake-up. The front-runner now is Captain Phillips with a slightly above average chance of victory at 25%.

20 Feet from Stardom / The Act of Killing

The most awarded film in this category, Stories We Tell, isn’t nominated for the Oscar so from a data point of view we’re fighting for table scraps. Currently 20 Feet from Stardom and The Act of Killing are level pegging but that isn’t saying much. A win at the Spirit Awards for either film would be a real boon for both them and my statistics.

Animated Film

Last time we checked Frozen had a healthy lead over the competition and since then has won the 100% accurate BAFTA award and the category specific Annie Award leaving it with a 74% chance of success. This isn’t quite as safe as Cate Blanchett but I would be amazed if any other animation got the Oscar.

Foreign Film
The Great Beauty

Blue is the Warmest Colour was ruining this category by winning all the awards but not having an Oscar nomination. Thankfully The Great Beauty has added a BAFTA to its Golden Globe and is looking like a much healthier contender for the all important golden statue.

We’ll have one final look at how things stand after the Independent Spirit Awards on 1st March and then on the 2nd my results will truly be put to the test.

BAFTA Rising Star Nominees 2014

Bafta Rising Star Nominees 2014

This year’s BAFTA Film Awards will be presented on the 16th of February and there is one award in particular that never fails to catch my attention; the Rising Star Award. The unique nature of the award is that the winner is voted for by the public and this is both intriguing and to the awards detriment. The award will sometimes go to the nominee with the biggest fan base or highest profile rather than an up and coming talent that could really do with the encouragement.

Yesterday BAFTA announced the five nominees as selected by a panel of industry experts and I’m here to pass judgement on them and see who I think should win.

Dane Dehaan

Dane Dehaan
Dehaan first grabbed my attention with his Season 3 role in Gabriel Byrne’s dialogue heavy TV epic In Treatment as the troubled teen Jesse D’Amato. Since then he has perfected the role of troubled genius in films such as Chronicle and Kill Your Darlings. Dehaan managed to ground the supernatural Chronicle and make it all the more real by putting in a truly threatening performance. I may not have enjoyed Kill Your Darlings but it certainly wasn’t Dehaan’s fault. His next major appearance is taking over the role of Harry Osborn in The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (a casting spookily predicted by Stephen on this blog) and I for one am quietly excited. As someone with some solid but low-key performances under his belt and more mainstream fare up ahead I can easily see what makes Dehaan a candidate for the Rising Star Award.

Will Poulter

Will Poulter
Oh Will, where did it all go wrong? Six years ago Poulter debuted in the adorable British film Son of Rambow directed by Garth Jennings in which Will played the role of Lee Carter. Since then he has taken on a few TV roles, appeared as Eustace in The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader and acted in the critically acclaimed Wild Bill. Most recently he has undone all that good work by helping to make the atrocity that was We’re the Millers. Sorry Will but I really can’t get past that film.

Lupita Nyong’o

Lupita Nyong’o
Lupita Nyong’o has a 100% flawless record of five-star films by virtue of the fact that her sole cinematic release to date is the, as yet unreleased in the UK, 12 Years a Slave. In this future Oscar winner (trust me) Lupita plays a young slave woman who is separated from her child and suffers the worst brutality seen in the film. As an attractive young woman she suffers from the amorous advances of her “owner” and the jealous rages of his wife all while grieving for her absent child. Nyong’o’s performance is striking and heartbreaking and I’d say she deserved this award if I didn’t already think she was on her way to the Best Actress Oscar instead.

Léa Seydoux

Léa Seydoux
Léa Seydoux has been working solidly in French cinema since 2006 and made a few appearances in high-profile American fare including Midnight in Paris, Inglourious Basterds, and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol. What has really brought Seydoux to everyone’s attention is her supporting role in the epic love story (and my favourite film of 2013) that is Blue is the Warmest Colour. Much as I loved her performance in the film I can’t help but think that her co-star Adèle Exarchopoulos is more deserving of a position on this list. Exarchopoulos carried the film on her shoulders and has a much less developed CV than Seydoux. All that said I am very excited to see where Léa’s career goes next particularly with her role in the remake of La belle & la bête coming up later this year.

George Mackay

George Mackay
Sadly, despite his recent role in the Proclaimers musical Sunshine on Leith, I have no idea who George Mackay is. Perhaps this anonymity makes him the perfect nominee for an award aimed at encouraging a burgeoning career or perhaps I just need to widen my cinematic horizons so that an actor’s entire career doesn’t pass me by again. Sorry George!

For me the winner has to be Dane DeHaan. Despite having a good crop of films behind him DeHaan has not yet become a household name and has put in a series of solid performances in smaller films. The others in the list have either risen too much in my opinion or made one bad film with Jennifer Aniston that i can’t get past. Not naming any names obviously. George Mackay prove me wrong, I’ll be sure to watch How I Live Now when it comes out on DVD.

Disagree with me? Of course you do! Have your say by voting over at the Rising Star Award page.

BAFTA 2012 Debrief

Last night BAFTA presented their annual film awards to an excited crowd of famous people, and I managed to forget that the ceremony was happening due to having a fun weekend and the fact that BAFTA somehow forgot to invite me along to the event.

BAFTA made some wise choices last night as they threw plenty of awards at The Artist, (Best Film, Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Music and Best Costume Design) and showed some much-needed love for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Outstanding British Film and Best Adapted Screenplay).

Meryl Streep took home an obvious win for her role in The Iron Lady making her Oscar win so certain it isn’t that exciting any more (and makes me think I should really make an effort to see the film). Christopher Plummer took home Best Supporting Actor for Beginners, a great role in a charming film which hopefully more people will seek out now that Plummer is winning awards all over the place.

Senna picked up Best Documentary and Best Editing making this the first year I can actually see what makes the editing in a certain film superior to others. As Senna was cut and pasted together from archive footage with nothing new being filmed for the documentary it is a pure feat of editing. It’s the equivalent of taking all of your old home movies and trying to cut together a BAFTA winning documentary, probably not worth the effort.

Further down the list of winners The Skin I Live In was dubbed Best Film not in the English Language and Rango won Best Animated Feature Film. Both films from my Top 20 Films of 2011 and both deserving winners, not least because I haven’t really seen any of the other nominees.

Perhaps the category with the most interest for me, partly because of the great talent taking up each space on the short list and partly because this was a category for which the winner was not obvious, was the BAFTA for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer. The award went to Paddy Considine for Tyrannosaur and is a great victory for a stunning debut. Frankly I would probably have had the same reaction for any of the nominees (though possibly not Coriolanus) as I have a lot of love for Black Pond, Submarine and Attack the Block.

For the full list of winners skip on down to IMDb.

Well done BAFTA, you did good.

BAFTA Nominations and the Great British Debuts

The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday and showed plenty of love for The Artist, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and, in a pleasant surprise, Drive. With all nominations limited to the technical categories, Harry Potter best give up its hopes of finally getting any major awards. Less frivolous than the Golden Globes and a major stop on the way to the Oscars, the BAFTA nominations are exciting if pretty unsurprising.

Amongst this huge list what I want to focus on are the nominations for the award for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer. In a time when we are looking towards the future of independent British cinema this is an uplifting category to see, especially after the devastation of Felicity Jones not making the shortlist for the Rising Star Award. I still love you Felicity, don’t worry.

Of the five nominees for Outstanding Debut, Attack the Block, Black Pond, Coriolanus, Submarine and Tyrannosaur, I have seen four and three of those made it into my carefully constructed Top 20 Films of 2011. Having five confident debuts from British talent is proof that the UK film industry has a future and that the various funding schemes are working. Looking back at yesterday’s talk of funding for production it’s interesting to see that Film4 helped fund Attack the Block, Submarine and Tyrannosaur, lottery funds went into both Attack the Block and Tyrannosaur, and Black Pond was made for just £25,000.

In my various reviews I’ve described these first-time features as intense, confident, fun, effortless, powerful, brutal and honest. What am I trying to say? Just that I’m incredibly proud of British cinema and continue to be relieved that yesterday’s report didn’t try to mess with a winning formula.

And now for the full list of nominees without comment: Continue reading

Orange Rising Star Award 2012 Nominees

This week the nominees for the 2012 Orange Rising Star Award were announced. With voting handled by the Great British Public, this is the one time we get a say on who wins a proper award. It is our duty as UK citizens and internet based film fans to have that say and vote. Let’s have a completely objective look at the nominees.

Jessica Chastain
Appearing in no less than five films this year, Chastain has burst out of nowhere to become a big upcoming presence in modern cinema. Highlights for me include Take Shelter and Coriolanus.

Eddie Redmayne
With the look of a male Gemma Arterton about him, Redmayne has only one major release this year, and it isn’t out until tomorrow. Still, having the lead role in My Week with Marilyn amongst so many British stalwarts is impressive.

Adam Deacon
A good handful of films out this year and yet the only roles I am likely to have seen Deacon in are the two separate characters he’s played on Casualty. Anuvahood did look amusing though.

Chris Hemsworth
From Home and Away to playing Thor, God of Oversized Hammers, Hemsworth has come a long way in the past four years. FUN FACT: He also did one episode of Neighbours.

Tom Hiddleston
Hiddleston is all over the shop starring in everything from comic book blockbusters to arty family dramas, from Woody Allen to The Deep Blue Sea. His face terrifies me slightly but we shouldn’t hold that against him.

Jennifer Lawrence
Lovely Jennifer Lawrence went on from her Oscar nominated performance to play Anton Yelchin’s love interest twice and to take on the role of a blue X-Person. Soon to be heading up the Next Big Franchise, Lawrence’s star is on the rise.

Felicity Jones
HELLO! No, I must remain impartial. Since getting the nod from us early last year (way before everyone else), Jones has been on a dramatic rise topped by a win at this year’s Sundance Film Festival. Not bad for a Brummie.

Chris O’Dowd
After slogging away on Channel 4 since 2006, O’Dowd has hit the big screen three times in the past two years. It was his appearance in Bridesmaids which everyone actually noticed though, providing a much-needed core to a fun but messy comedy.

There are your eight nominees, who will you vote for? We are remaining totally impartial…

Continue reading

An Evening with The King’s Speech

Baftas 2011

This should be the easiest awards recap ever as The King’s Speech won all the big awards it was up for, completely sweeping the board. Its presence was made all the stronger by the amount of other winners that hadn’t turned up so weren’t given any screen time collecting their awards. The sheer dominance of the film, and the number of awkward moments, made for a less than exciting ceremony.

The King’s Speech does deserve to win awards so it’s hard to complain, though perhaps someone other than Helena Bonham Carter should have won Best Supporting Actress, there were better performances this year. Lesley Manville in Another Year anyone?

I was surprised and pleased to see The Social Network pick up an award for directing, and the screenplay award was just plain right. Aaron Sorkin is a master who cannot be matched. These two awards allowed BAFTA to show that they weren’t too biased towards the Brits.

Speaking of bias towards the Brits, Chris Morris deservedly won Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer for Four Lions. With Duncan Jones winning last year this is a great award for praising unique filmmaking in Britain that might otherwise go unrewarded.

It’s a shame Andrew Garfield didn’t win the Orange Rising Star Award, but as we forgot to vote ourselves, we can’t really complain. Besides, with Inception being relegated to a collection of technical awards, it was nice to see one cast member up on stage.

It was an evening with more flubbed lines than surprise winners and is likely to be reflected at The Oscars, Portman’s win certainly will be at least.

Nominations – The Hits and Misses

Before we had chance to have a proper look at the BAFTA nominations, the Oscars announced their own nominees leaving us in danger of overdoing it with the nomination coverage. In a two for one special let’s take this film by film and see where the two big ceremonies have put most of their nominations. We’ll look at each ceremony nearer the time.

127 Hours – 14 Nominations
Franco, the screenplay, music and editing are all nominated at both ceremonies and could possibly pick up the majority of these awards, though Franco would have to topple King Firth first. While at the Oscars it has a Best picture nomination, at the BAFTAs there is the slightly more specialist Outstanding British Film nomination and Boyle is only nominated for directing at the BAFTAs, benefiting perhaps from the home advantage. A good reception for a film about a man stuck under a rock.

Another Year – 3 Nominations
This beauty has a meagre spattering of nominations from the two institutes. The Oscars are just recognising the screenplay while BAFTA give Lesley Manville a nod for her heart-breaking role. Shame they couldn’t find a bit more room for Another Year in the other categories.

Black Swan – 17 Nominations
Doing particularly well with the BAFTAs this film has nominations for almost all the technical awards, most excitingly for Visual Effects, always good to see something not seen as “effects heavy” getting nominated. Darranofsky and Portman get a nomination at each ceremony as does the film, cinematography and editing. Bonus points again to BAFTA for nominating Barbara Hershey for Best Supporting Actress. Shame no nod for Vincent Cassel.

Blue Valentine – 1 Nomination
More notable here for it’s lack of nominations, receiving just the one for Michelle Williams. Ryan Gosling must be a little hurt, or blue. Lol.

Biutiful – 4 Nominations
A perfect match across the ceremonies with Best Actor and Best Foreign Film nominations in both. Notable for having a lead actor nomination for the first time for a role with no English dialogue.

Exit Through The Gift Shop – 2 Nominations
In this list purely because I saw it at the weekend and though it amazing, and most likely not a hoax. Probably given one nomination for each ceremony in the hope that Banksy will turn up in person.

The Fighter – 8 Nominations
The screenplay and Amy Adams’ supporting role are the only two double nominations, with the Oscars throwing in a nomination for the film in it’s widened category and the BAFTAs nominating our nation’s own Christian Bale.

Inception – 17 Nominations
Thankfully not just getting technical nominations, Inception is also up for Best Film and Screenplay at both ceremonies with just the BAFTAs recognising Nolan’s directorial triumph. Expect plenty of technical wins but nothing for the bigger awards.

The Kids Are All Right – 8 Nominations
One of the least flashy big hitters, hence the lack of technical nominations. Instead there are double nominations for Bening, Ruffalo and the screenplay. The Oscars gives it a chance at Best Film while the BAFTAs gives Moore some deserved recognition. Yes Bening stole the show but Moore was better than Ruffalo, no?

The King’s Speech – 26 Nominations
As if winning one of our awards at the London Film Festival wasn’t enough, this British darling is doing amazingly well, probably for being a “proper” film that is actually enjoyable. Nominated at both awards for everything from acting to sound mixing The King’s Speech is the one to beat. A special note should be made of Rush’s double nominations for supporting actor as he made the film, and the undeserved nominations for Carter who is possibly just being swept up in the film’s tidal wave of praise.

The Social Network – 14 Nominations
My personal favourite of all the nominees has well deserved double nominations for film, direction, screenplay (woo Sorkin!) and Best Actor. Nice to see Jesse Eisenberg nominated, but a shame to see only BAFTA recognising Andrew Garfield’s talents. He needs all the accolades we can give him and this film deserves all it’s nominations. Best Screenplay is a must.

The Town – 2 Nominations
Another film I had expected to do a little better and oddly has different actors being rewarded for their supporting roles in the different events. Perhaps this could be an opportunity for BAFTA to give Pete Postlethwaite a farewell trophy.

Toy Story 3 – 8 Nominations
Pixar continue to break out of the technical categories and get double nods for Best Film, Best Animated Film and Best Screenplay. On a related note Day & Night absolutely has to win best animated short for being the most ingenious thing Pixar have ever done. Ever.

True Grit – 18 Nominations
The Coen Brothers always do well but the alarming lack of respect from the Golden Globes looked set to change that. No worries now that they have been showered with nominations, though Hailee Steinfeld has been relegated to supporting actress by the Oscars while the BAFTAs recognise her leading role status. Hard to say without having seen it but it’s probably awesome.

Waste Land – 1 Nomination
Another Mild Concern favourite getting the attention it deserves, carry on.

Winter’s Bone – 4 Nominations
This dark tale we haven’t seen went by the BAFTA radar but garnered Oscar nominations for acting, film and screenplay. Kudos!

Kristen Stewart – Vampires = Flop

I don’t know about you but I heard endless amounts about The Runaways during it’s production and up to its release. There were production stills, on-set photos and endless interviews with everyone’s favourite angsty actress Kristen Stewart and it looked like the true Twihards would be flocking out in droves to support the actress they managed to get the Orange Rising Star award at this year’s BAFTAs.

Oddly though as The Runaways ended it’s run in America this week it had taken just $3,626,540 worldwide. Admittedly it was only on limited release but it got a lot of buzz and the Twilight connection brought it plenty of attention so there’s no reason it couldn’t have built up to more screen and made at least its budget back.

This could reveal that Twilight is all about the franchise itself and not the actors within it. Stewart has been shown to have little to no audience drawing power on her own, though perhaps her male counterparts would fare better as they are more often the target of the seemingly endless supply of screaming fangirls. It’s a shame really as Kristen Stewart is a good actress, Twilight aside, and has been in some good films. She just probably shouldn’t be the biggest name in her next feature.

BAFTA Debrief

Despite some horribly received jokes courtesy of Jonathan Ross’ final year hosting, the BAFTA’s turned into a great ceremony where nearly all the awards were given to worthy candidates. Though hopefully next year the BBC will broadcast live so I don’t have to close twitter to remain unspoiled. While the Oscars will no doubt have a more entertaining show the winners are likely to be much more disappointing. Let’s look at who won:

Carl Foreman Award for the Most Promising Newcomer – Duncan Jones for Moon

This was a great start for the night as a very promising new director steps out from his father’s shadow and gave a teary acceptance speech for a much deserved award. Shame this wasn’t kept for later on in the evening when things started to drag.

Best Acheievement in Special Visual Effects/Best Production Design – Avatar

The two awards I have to admit Avatar is entitled to. The film pushed boundaries and the teams looked dead chuffed to win. Cameron remained seated for both awards thank god.

Best Supporting Actor – Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds

Yes it was obvious, especially when up again Alec Baldwin in It’s Complicated, and it won’t be his last award but Waltz deserved to win. The only debate is whether he was really a supporting actor or just knew it would be easier to win in that category.

Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

She didn’t even turn up to collect the award! I’m sure she was very good but I’d have preferred someone from Up in the Air to win. Poor Anna Kendrick struggled to look happy while Edgar Wright beside her pretended to be Jason Reitman so no one would realise they’re dating.

Alexander Korda Award for Outstanding British Film of the Year – Fish Tank

I have yet to see Fish Tank but it is supposed to be good and I know In the Loop had no real chance. An Education once again was shown to have lost its awards buzz sometime over Christmas.

Orange Rising Star Award – Kristen Stewart

Looks like those Twilight fans have been voting hard. Outside of the vampire franchise Stewart has put in some good performances in films such as Adventureland and Into the Wild and my only concern with her winning is that she is hardly a newcomer, they even showed a clip of her in Panic Room from 2002.

Best Screenplay (Adapted) – Up in the Air: Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

I was very surprised and happy with this win though sadly Reitman wasn’t there to collect and Edgar Wright had to give up pretending to not simply being Anna Kendrick’s date. I’d be surprised if same result came out at the Oscars.

Best Animated Feature Film – Up

It was no surprise that Up won but it was a beautiful film. Pixar is so often expected to win in these categories but never has it been so well deserved. I always find the Pixar people slightly too nice and sincere though.

Best Film not in the English Language – Un prophète

Having seen none of the nominees like a true British cinema-goer I have no real opinion apart from to say that I thought Das weisse Band – Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte would win, for no good reason.

Best Actor – Colin Firth for A Single Man

After a long career Colin Firth has finally become a real actor. He looked very happy and gave the funniest speech of the night. Jeff Bridges will probably get the Oscar but should start to worry a little bit.

Best Actress – Carey Mulligan for An Education

Coming from almost nowhere Mulligan wowed critics and raised awards hopes that had almost disappeared, but with the home advantage she finally won something and was her usual adorable self upon accepting the award.

Best Screenplay (Original)/David Lean Award for Achievement in Direction/Best Film – The Hurt Locker

Winning these three big categories had made me realise I should probably get around to watching The Hurt Locker, a film that looks like it just might deserve the awards it keeps winning. Not sure why they kept calling the film a risk, but they certainly seemed to think it was one.

Academy Fellowship – Vanessa Redgrave

It was sad to see her daughter Natasha Richardson feature in the “In Memoriam” montage but Vanessa Redgrave seemed genuinely honoured to receive her Fellowship. Everyone watching became less and less happy for her though as her speech nearly reached the ten minute mark, an oddly painful way to close the show.

BAFTA Film Awards

Sunday night brings the BAFTA film awards, Britain’s only answer to the Oscars that isn’t a product of ITV’s marketing department. With any luck the BAFTAs will offer up different winners to the American awards as the nominations were certainly more inclusive of smaller films.

An Education and it’s star Carey Mulligan garnered a lot of award buzz last year that has since died down, but with nominations for Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Achievement in Directing and Best Adapted Screenplay it could well finally get a few of the awards it has been promised. Carey Mulligan is definitely one of the biggest contenders for the Orange Rising Star Award. Sally Sparrow for the win!

Personal favourites, and mostly ignored films, from last year were Duncan Jones’ Moon and In the Loop, both now nominated for Outstanding British Film. In The Loop is also up for Best Adapted Screenplay and Duncan Jones for Most Promising Newcomer. A win for any of these nominations is quite possible and would be a real victory for these underrated little gems, it’s just a shame neither Sam Rockwell or Peter Capaldi are nominated.

The final two films I think may fare better this side of the pond are District 9 and Fantastic Mr. Fox, though both probably only retain an outside chance of victory. Nowhere Boy and Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll are getting some of their first nominations outside of the British Independent Film Awards, though probably have little chance of success here.

The four award heavyweights, The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, Inglourious Basterds and Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, have racked up their usual slew of nominations and could easily win in any category without much surprise or effort. While Avatar is also up for a few big awards I don’t see it faring too well as it faces stiff competition from other more worthy films. I could be wrong; Avatar did surprisingly well at the Golden Globes. Fingers crossed at least.

The British Academy Film Awards air on BBC1 from 9pm Sunday 21st February, and the full list of nominees can be found here.