Data Driven Oscar Predictions 2017

I am back to try to predict the unpredictable. Can I guess tonight’s Oscar winners using just an Excel spreadsheet, some questionable mathematics, and seventeen years of award winners? In the past I vary from getting just over half right to getting nearly all predictions right. With that kind of accuracy it’s no wonder I haven’t yet made a fortune at the bookies.

For anyone with no more time to spare my predictions are below and for people who like the nitty-gritty I go into more detail afterwards.

Category	Predicted Winner
BEST PICTURE	La La Land
DIRECTING	Damien Chazelle – La La Land
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE	Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE	Isabelle Huppert – Elle
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE	Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE	Viola Davis – Fences
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	Manchester by the Sea
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	Arrival
ANIMATED FEATURE	Zootopia
FOREIGN FILM	Toni Erdmann
DOCUMENTARY	OJ Made in America

To make my predictions I will be using 14 other awards ceremonies and looking back at how often the winners they chose have overlapped with the eventual Oscar winners since the year 2000. Using this I can see which awards are good at predicting the Oscars in which category and using the award winners so far this year I can see who will win on Sunday night.

DISCLAIMER: I’ve tried this three times before getting 10/11 right the first time, 6/11 the second, and 8/11 right the third; place your bets accordingly.

Best Picture	La La Land
Often a tricky one to predict with so many contenders in the race, this year the task isn’t so hard. La La Land has won a massive six predictor awards including the Producers’ Guild Award which has the highest accuracy at 59%. Moonlight is a distant second. Chance of winning: 13% Runner up: Moonlight (14%)

Best Director	Damien Chazelle La La Land
The race for best director was a lot closer before I noticed a mistake in my spreadsheet. Now I see hat Damien Chazelle is well in the lead with Moonlight‘s Barry Jenkins again taking silver. The Directors’ Guold award is right 81% of the time and it went to Chazelle this year. Chance of winning: 50% Runner up: Barry Jenkins – Moonlight(30%)

Actor in a Leading Role	Casey Affleck Manchester by the Sea
The most predictable award of the evening goes to the younger Affleck brother. He’s won 8 of my predictor awards including three strong predictors. Nobody else is getting a look in. Chance of winning: 79% Runner up: Denzel Washington – Fences (8%)

Actress in a Leading Role	Isabelle Huppert Elle
It all comes down to the Golden Globes. Huppert and Emma Stone both won best actress but Huppert won for drama and Stone for comedy. Drama lines up with the Oscar winner 69% of the time, and comedy just 19%. That said, I will be surprised if this prediction is right. Chance of winning: 41% Runner up: Emma Stone – La La Land (29%)

Actor in a Supporting Role	Mahershala Ali Moonlight
A much safer bet her for supporting actor. Mahershala Ali has won a handful of strong predictor award while two of his rivals have won one award each, and the remaining two have nothing. Chance of winning: 61% Runner up: Dev Patel – Lion (30%)

Actress in a Supporting Role	Viola Davis Fences
I got this wrong last year but am convinced that Davis’ four wins at strong predictor ceremonies gives her a strong lead. He main contender is Naomie Harris who only has two wins and neither of those are strong predictors. Chance of winning: 59% Runner up: Naomie Harris – Moonlight (13%)

Original Screenplay	Manchester by the Sea
With six awards already above the fire I think the drama about grief will beat out the musical about love. None of the six awards are particularly predictive by their combined weight give this script the edge. Chance of winning: 44% Runner up: La La Land (22%)

Adapted Screenplay	Arrival
This is a bit of a guess more than anything as lots of award ceremonies only have one screenplay award and they gave their prize to Manchester by the Sea. Essentially I am lacking in data. That said Arrival did win the Writers’ Guild award which is right 75% of the time. Chance of winning: 33% Runner up: Lion (21%)

Animated Feature	Zootopia
A year with no Pixar nominee opens up this race a bit. Not a lot, but a bit. Zootopia has won five predictor awards putting it in first place but did not win the most predictive award of all; the BAFTA. Kubo and the Two Strings won the BAFTA and that is right 90% of the time. Chance of winning: 65% Runner up: Kubo and the Two Strings (18%)

Foreign Film	Toni Erdmann
Until last night this was almost too close to call but a win at the Spirit Awards has allowed Toni Erdmann to pull into a more confident first place. Chance of Winning: 30% Runner up: The Salesman (21%)

Documentary	OJ Made in America
This eight hour documentary about an American hero turned accused killer is set to take home a golden statue thanks to five predictor award wins. If you have the stamina this epic is available now on BBC iPlayer. Chance of winning: 37% Runner up: 13th (19%)

Data Driven Oscar Predictions 2016

How do you predict the Oscar winners? Do you watch all the nominees and weigh up their relative merits? Nothing so simple or subjective here at Mild Concern. We gather data, we analyse it, and then we stay up all night to see if our predictions were right and if Leo and Kate recreate their Titanic pose holding matching statuettes onstage.

Why try to guess when you have maths on your side? According to the BBC it is all the rage these days.

For anyone with no more time to spare my predictions are below and for aspiring data nerds I go into more detail afterwards.

Category	Predicted Winner
BEST PICTURE	The Revenant
DIRECTING	Alejandro G Inarritu – The Revenant
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE	Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE	Brie Larson – Room
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE	Sylvester Stallone – Creed
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE	Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY	Spotlight
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY	The Big Short
ANIMATED FEATURE	Inside Out
FOREIGN FILM	Son of Saul
DOCUMENTARY	Amy

To make my predictions I will be using 14 other awards ceremonies and looking back at how often the winners they chose have overlapped with the eventual Oscar winners since the year 2000. Using this I can see which awards are good at predicting the Oscars in which category and using the award winners so far this year I can see who will win on Sunday night. Simple!

DISCLAIMER: I’ve tried this twice before getting 10/11 right the first time and 6/11 the second; place your bets accordingly.

Best Picture	The Revenant
This is one of the trickiest categories to predict with a variety of films winning predictor awards. Until a few weeks ago Spotlight was in the lead having won three awards but The Revenant jumped into the lead having won the BAFTA which matches the Oscar winner 63% of the time. Chance of winning: 19% Runner up: Spotlight (18%)

Best Director	Alejandro G Inarritu The Revenant
This is another award that was previously veering another direction. Mad Max: Fury Road was cleaning up at various critic’s choice awards but The Revenant stormed into the lead after grabbing the Director’s Guild Award which predicts the Oscar a massive 80% of the time. Chance of winning: 39% Runner up: George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road(30%)

Actor in a Leading Role	Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant
There is no real competition here. DiCaprio has won four predictor awards including the SAG and Critics’ Choice awards which each overlapping with the Oscars 73% of the time. Chance of winning: 61% Runner up: Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs (12%)

Actress in a Leading Role	Brie Larson Room
Brie Larson accepts no defeat in her victory-heavy journey to the Oscars. Her chance of going home with the Oscar is even more certain that Leo’s having won a total of five predictor awards for Room. If you haven’t seen the film yet then please do, and take some tissues. Chance of winning: 62% Runner up: Charlotte Rampling (15%)

Actor in a Supporting Role	Sylvester Stallone Creed
A close call here with the eternal Rocky star winning three awards to Mark Rylance’s four victories. Luckily Stallone got his hands on the Golden Globe which has a solid 87% overlap with the Oscars. Chance of winning: 39% Runner up: Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies (30%)

Actress in a Supporting Role	Kate Winslet Steve Jobs
Alicia Vikander has received a lot of love this awards season but her nominations have been spread between The Danish Girl and her far superior performance in Ex Machina. Winslet has remained focussed and has three predictor awards with 60+% Oscar overlap. Chance of winning: 43% Runner up: Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (27%)

Original Screenplay	Spotlight
As the only nominee to win any of my predictor awards there is no competition outside of pure fluke. Not that the Oscars are immune to pure flukes… That said Spotlight has won a total of 5 awards so this is far from a token win. Chance of winning: 53%

Adapted Screenplay	The Big Short
A more mixed field for adapted screenplay but The Big Short walked away with the Writers’ Guild Award which is right 73% of the time. Chance of winning: 40% Runner up: The Martian (18%)

Animated Feature	Inside Out
Putting The Good Dinosaur firmly behind them Disney Pixar will still win an Academy award on Sunday as Inside Out has won almost all of my predictors including the animation specific Annie Award. This is the award that I feel most confident about. Chance of winning: 88% Runner up: Anomalisa (4%)

Foreign Film	Son of Saul
Time to pretend you’ve heard of any of the nominees! Hungarian critical darling Son of Saul is all over this. Chance of Winning: 43%

Documentary	Amy
This tragic British documentary about Amy Winehouse is set to take home a golden statue despite the protestations of her father. Having won all but one of the key awards nobody else comes close. Chance of winning: 66%

Oscar Predictions 2015 – Breaking the Enigma with Data, Maths, and Educated Guesswork

Last year I used maths to successfully predict 10 out of 11 key Oscar winners and now want to try it again to take all the glory for me and my calculator. I’ve had to leave it relatively late in the day to share my findings as the Independent Spirit awards can be key Oscar predictors and only take place the day before the Academy awards. Below I will take you through my methods, my predictions, and make clear where the data, and my sanity, has let me down.

If at anytime the heady mix of maths and popular culture becomes too much excitement for you to bear please close your browser, have a ten minute nap, and then come back and resume reading.

For each category I will be showing three predictions for each category; they have each been worked out in a different way to help me decide the best method to use going forward. The methods are as follows…

Statistical Method 1: This is the same method used last year. Every award a nominee wins leading up to the Oscars increases their chance of winning on the night. How accurate each award has been since the year 2000 in predicting the Oscar winner affects the amount it increases the nominees chances. If the BAFTA matches the Oscar 80% of the time it has greater weight than an Independent Spirit Award that agrees with the Oscars 24% of the time. Make sense? Good stuff. All maths here is performed in trusty Excel.

Statistical Method 2: In order to get a little more statistically robust this year I built a second set of predictive models using stepwise regression in R. This might be a good point to look away if you’re feeling faint. For each category I am looking at which other awards Oscar nominees win before the Academy awards and throwing Box Office and Rotten Tomatoes data into the mix too. I have built a model that only takes into account factors that have statistically significant correlation with Oscar winners, leaving some data points null and void, and allows for the fact that some awards might actually have been seen to have a negative impact on Oscar chances. Pretty sexy stuff.

Statistical Method 3: I emailed Adam Richmond from the late and great film podcast Out of the Canon and asked who he thought would win. One of the simpler techniques I’ve used.

Enough bad explanations of statistics. On with the guesswork!

 

Best Picture

 

Most commentators seem to have Birdman down as taking the top award but both my statistical models have settled on Boyhood while Adam has selected Selma. Adam is clearly delusional and my regression model (Method 2) is very healthy for this category and ranks Birdman in second to last position so I think it is Boyhood‘s to lose.

Prediction: Boyhood

 

Directing

 

The old Excel technique gives Richard Linklater a clear lead for Boyhood but the newer model ignores a lot of the data and fixates on the DGA award which went to Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman. Adam agrees with this prediction so statistical significance and film knowledge win this round.

Prediction: Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman

 

Actress in a Leading Role

 

Having won endless awards Julianne Moore has bamboozled both my models into giving her an insurmountable lead for her performance in Still Alice. Interestingly a lower Rotten Tomatoes critics score here actually makes you more likely to win the Oscar. Make of that what you will. Adam has gone for Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything which I would love but is a complete fantasy.

Prediction: Julianne Moore for Still Alice

 

Actor in a Leading Role

 

What can I say? Michael Keaton, Michael Keaton, Michael Keaton. Consensus feels like it is behind Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything but he only takes second place in my old method whereas the regression analysis and Adam give it to Michael Keaton in Birdman easily. For this award a good Rotten Tomatoes audience score helps you win suggesting there is definitely something going on with the reception of films and the gender of their lead actors. Analysis for another time perhaps.

Prediction: Michael Keaton for Birdman

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

 

Another hat trick of predictions here for Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. In model 1 you need as many awards as possible. Done. In model 2 you just need the BAFTA and SAG awards. Done. In model 3 you need Adam’s blessing. Done. Nobody else has a chance.

Prediction: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

 

Actor in a Supporting Role

 

A clean sweep for J.K. Simmons in Whiplash. He has won all but one of my predictor awards and my second, stricter methodology only looks at who won the Golden Globe which Simmons has somewhere on his crowded mantelpiece. Even Adam agrees which means that Simmons will not only win but deserves to do so.

Prediction: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

 

Original Screenplay

 

My old technique for predicting the screenplay awards was a big shaky but with consensus across the three methods we can safely give the Oscar to Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel now and not even bother having the ceremony. Key predictors here are the BAFTA and WGA awards but weirdly the lower the Box Office the better.

Prediction: Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel

 

Adapted Screenplay

 

Interestingly here methods 1 and 2 use almost completely different factors for this award but come out with the same result. Method 2, the sexy new technique using only the most robust predictors, eschews nearly all award ceremonies preferring to look at just the WGA awards, Box Office takings, and Rotten Tomatoes critics scores. Either way you do the sums The Imitation Game by Graham Moore takes it. Unless you are Adam in which case Whiplash by Damien Chazelle is the favourite.

Prediction: Graham Moore for The Imitation Game

 

Animated Feature Film

 

This is where the new method falls over drunk. The main awards to look at for the Animated Feature category are the BAFTA and Critics Choice which both went to The Lego Movie making it the clear favourite for the Oscar. This category also has the strongest predictive model from a statistical point of view so should be the easiest for me to get right. The only issue here being that it isn’t even nominated. Bugger. Both Adam and my old technique suggest How to Train Your Dragon 2 whereas the new technique is confused and says it could be any nominee but most likely not How to Train Your Dragon 2. Stupid Oscars.

Prediction: How to Train Your Dragon 2

 

Foreign Language Film

 

This is the category that is hardest to predict. Very few factors align with the Oscars in a statistically significant way so my new method simply shrugs and says to look at the Golden Globes but that it really isn’t sure. Most of my models claim to be around 60% accurate, 80% for Animated Film (HA!), but here we’re at 12.6%. Model 1 gives the award to Ida with a narrow lead over Leviathan whereas Model 2 and Adam say it is going to Leviathan. Frankly I have no idea.

Prediction: Leviathan

 

Documentary Feature

 

Another tricky one. Citizenfour has the greatest sheer volume of awards, and has Adam’s vote to boot. The regression model however is uncertain and with some hesitation has settled on Virunga. It is worrying how these statistical techniques have taken on human qualities for me now. I am going to have to go with my gut, and Adam’s brain, on this one.

Prediction: Citizenfour

There you have it. Eleven categories predicted in various way and with differing levels of accuracy. In the early hours of tomorrow morning we will see who was right and once again wonder if it really matters.

Mild Concern Oscars 2014 Live Ramble

Following the fun of last year’s live ramble I’m staying up all night again to watch rich people give each other small golden statues as a reward for pretending to be other people. I am here tonight for two reasons:

1. I want to see how well my statistical predictions have fared.
2. I have the day off work tomorrow anyway to receive an IKEA delivery.

Two very important reasons I am sure you will agree…

As for those statistical predictions; the final figures are in. After last night’s Independent Spirit Awards I have all the data I need to make my predictions. Only two categories have shifted since our last look at the numbers so I won’t linger on the maths too much today. Simply put Lupita Nyong’o has edged ahead of Jennifer Lawrence in the race for Best Supporting Actress but the figures are so close either could easily win. The only other category to change is the award for best Documentary in which 20 Feet from Stardom has broken away from The Act of Killing despite the latter being a hugely deserving winner. Will my numbers be right, only time will tell.

The live ramble will start as soon as I have something to say and will finish around 4am at which point I will be making less sense than usual and my use of commas will be criminal. To view the live ramble click here and scroll down below the “Related Posts” to either join me live in a journey through insomnia or simply read through the evening in the morning.

For reference here are my FINAL Oscar predictions:

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Oscar Predictions Update – The BAFTA Effect

Last month I introduced to you my amazing new statistical approach for predicting the Oscar winners. Amazing, new, and stolen from Nate Silver. With the BAFTAs having been announced we now have much more fleshed out statistics and the predictions are becoming ever more clear. Sadly my 100% foolproof prediction technique seems to be agreeing with the bookmakers’ picks so any attempt for me to get rich is not going to happen.

Below are my updated charts (oooh charts!) which look at each category in turn, just select the category you want to look at from the drop down menu (oooh drop down menu!). If you want to read about the methodology have a look at the previous post.

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Best Picture
12 Years a Slave

Already the frontrunner last month 12 Years a Slave now holds the BAFTA in this most important category and so looks unbeatable at the Oscar ceremony. Start practising your speech Steve McQueen.

Directing
Gravity

Another predicted winner that was set for Oscar success without the need for BAFTA support. Now with the golden mask secured Gravity is statistically unbeatable… let’s just hope the voters realise my integrity is at stake.

Actor in a Leading Role
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Every nominee apart from Christian Bale has won at least one precursor award for this category but, regardless of Chiwetel Ejiofor’s win last night, Matthew McConaughey has won more of the most accurate award predictors. With its British skew BAFTA only predicts this category 54% of the time.

Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Cate Blanchett has continued to gather awards for her role in Blue Jasmine and this success is giving her the most striking statistic of all with an 80% chance of winning the Oscar. Poor Judi Dench might as well stay at home.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

While the BAFTA went to the deserving newcomer Barkhad Abdi from Captain Phillips it’s not enough to take on Jared Leto’s near clean sweep for Dallas Buyers Club which leaves him more likely to win than not.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle

For now at least. The BAFTA win for Lawrence, with its 77% accuracy rating, has pushed her ahead of former frontrunner Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave. The stats are close though and if Nyong’o can win the Independent Spirit award the day before the Oscars (an award Lawrence is not nominated for) she will JUST gain the lead. Far too close to call this one.

Original Screenplay
Spike Jonze for Her

Forget the BAFTAs for a minute as the WGA awards have also taken place recently and they are key predictor when it comes to the writing category, most likely as the two voting panels will have a large overlap. As such the WGA win for Her has let it increase its lead slightly, though with a probability of victory as low as 36% American Hustle could steal the show.

Adapted Screenplay
Billy Ray for Captain Phillips

Captain Phillips winning the WGA award and Philomena the BAFTA has given this already contentious category a little shake-up. The front-runner now is Captain Phillips with a slightly above average chance of victory at 25%.

Documentary
20 Feet from Stardom / The Act of Killing

The most awarded film in this category, Stories We Tell, isn’t nominated for the Oscar so from a data point of view we’re fighting for table scraps. Currently 20 Feet from Stardom and The Act of Killing are level pegging but that isn’t saying much. A win at the Spirit Awards for either film would be a real boon for both them and my statistics.

Animated Film
Frozen

Last time we checked Frozen had a healthy lead over the competition and since then has won the 100% accurate BAFTA award and the category specific Annie Award leaving it with a 74% chance of success. This isn’t quite as safe as Cate Blanchett but I would be amazed if any other animation got the Oscar.

Foreign Film
The Great Beauty

Blue is the Warmest Colour was ruining this category by winning all the awards but not having an Oscar nomination. Thankfully The Great Beauty has added a BAFTA to its Golden Globe and is looking like a much healthier contender for the all important golden statue.

We’ll have one final look at how things stand after the Independent Spirit Awards on 1st March and then on the 2nd my results will truly be put to the test.

Oscars! Statistics! Predicting the Winners with Maths!

UPDATE: Stats have been updated after the BAFTAs and can be found here.

Last year statistical wizard Nate Silver had a go at predicting the Oscar winners using the various other award ceremonies as indicators. With my love for both films and data this year I decided to give it a go myself. Taking a leaf out of Nate’s book I will be using twelve other award ceremonies to give me my predictions. I will not be using anything other that cold, hard statistics and will not let my emotions or film knowledge sway my opinion.

To begin with I looked at how often these twelve awards have agreed with the Oscar selections across 11 awards categories since the year 2000. For example; the Golden Globe and the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor have gone to the same recipient as one another 11 times out of the past 13 years and so in this category the Golden Globes have a predictive accuracy of 85%. As the ceremonies take place for this year’s events I am looking at all the awards the Oscar nominees are winning, calculating their chance of winning the Oscar based on their combined precursor awards’ predictive accuracy, and comparing that score with their rivals.

So far nine of my twelve precursor ceremonies have taken place, and some categories won’t settle down until after the BAFTAs in mid-February, but my interim analysis certainly shows some dominant nominees. Have a look at the charts below and see what you think. The drop down menu will allow you to toggle between Oscar categories, the bar chart to the left shows how the nominees stack up against one another so far, and the table to the right shows how often the other awards correspond with the Oscar winner.

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Best Picture
12 Years a Slave

The strongest predictors for Best Picture are the Producers Guild Award and the Critic’s Choice Movie Award, both of which were won by 12 Years a Slave. The only significant award yet to be announced is the BAFTA but even if Gravity takes the title it will have to literally beat the odds if it hopes to win the Oscar.

Directing
Gravity

It is completely the opposite story for the Best Director Oscar with Alfonso Cuarón and Gravity having won the big hitters in the form of the Directors Guild Award and the Critic’s Choice Movie Award. 12 Years a Slave is so far behind that a BAFTA win would make little difference.

Actor in a Leading Role
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

The Critic’s Choice Movie Award again dominates the field followed closely by the Screen Actors Guild Award, both sitting on the mantelpiece of Matthew McConaughey. The power lies in London now as both the London Film Critics Circle and BAFTA awards have yet to be decided and both hold some sway over the category.

Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

By far and away the most distinctive category at this stage in the race as Cate Blanchett leaves all rivals in the dust. Her’s is the only Oscar nominated performance to have won any precursor award apart from Amy Adams who won a mostly inaccurate Golden Globe for Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical. This really is Blanchett’s award to lose.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

Almost as strong a predicted winner as Blanchett, Leto is way out in the lead having won all but three of the precursor awards to this point. The only other actors to have won awards in this category aren’t even nomination for the Oscar so won’t be troubling Leto when March roles round. No competition… yet.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave

Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence have won three precursor awards each with Nyong’o taking the lead by winning awards of slightly more importance than Lawrence. Too close to call yet especially with the most accurate BAFTA looming in a few weeks.

Original Screenplay
Spike Jonze for Her

Let’s take this prediction with a huge pinch of salt right now as the only awards with any predictive power here, the BAFTA and the Writer’s Guild of America Award, lie in the future and could easily change the rankings completely.

Adapted Screenplay
Terence Winter for The Wolf of Wall Street

The BAFTA isn’t as important for this award but the WGA award certainly is. No nominee has won more than one precursor award so far so we may never have a good grip on the winner before the Oscar itself is awarded.

Documentary
20 Feet from Stardom

This is a very difficult category to predict as none of the precursor awards are particularly accurate predictors. 20 Feet from Stardom takes the lead having only won the Critics’ Choice Movie Award with all other awards to date going to Stories We Tell which has not been nominated.

Animated Film
Frozen

Way out in the lead is Frozen with the mightily accurate Critics’ Choice Movie Award under its belt. That said the BAFTA for this category has yet to be awarded and thus far it has an unprecedented 100% predictive accuracy.

Foreign Film
The Great Beauty

It all falls apart here as one film is absolutely dominating this category across the precursor awards and that is Blue is the Warmest Colour. Tragically the film is not eligible for the Oscars this year so we only have The Great Beauty‘s win at the Golden Globes to go by.

We’ll have another look at how things stand after the BAFTAs on 15th February when we will have four more ceremonies contributing to the stats and I will be making my way to the bookies.

2014 Oscar Nominations Not-Remotely-Live Blog

I wasn’t quite organised enough to have a liveblog up and running when the Oscar nominations were announced this lunchtime but I made myself a post so I’m damn well going to put something in it. I will forgo listing all the nominations as they can be found everywhere else on the internet. The important facts are these…

• Gravity and American Hustle lead the pack with ten nominations each, closely followed by 12 Years a Slave with nine. Nebraska has a pleasing six nominations and Her continues to taunt me with five nominations and a UK release that has yet to arrive.

• Judi Dench and Meryl Streep are competing for the Best Actress award, a title that Dench has never won and one that Streep has taken twice and been nominated for fourteen(!!!) times.

• The only nomination for Saving Mr. Banks is for its music and this upsets me greatly.

• Blue is the Warmest Colour has completely failed to be nominated for Best Foreign Film and that is a tragedy as it clearly is the best foreign film and if you ask me the best film overall. So there.

• Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa has been nominated for an Oscar. Take that in. It’s for Best Makeup and Hairstyling but still, it just feels wrong. Weirdly American Hustle is not nominated in this category despite the hair being the best bit.

• David O Russell and American Hustle continue to rhyme and sound incredibly satisfying.

• Jonah Hill has received his second Oscar nomination. Who would have thought he’d ever be an Oscar contender considering his former career in broad comedies? Ditto for Matthew McConaughey who has moved so far away from his Romantic Comedy background he is barely recognisable.

• Best Live Action Short is not normally a category I can comment on but somehow I have seen nominee The Voorman Problem twice and it is worthy of the win. The short stars Martin Freeman as a psychiatrist called to a prison to deal with an inmate who is convinced that he is God (Tom Hollander). It is short, clever, funny, and has famous people in it.

• There are really only three nominees for Best Film. For the past three years I have seen the winner of the top prize at the previous year’s London Film Festival therefore this year’s winner must come from the films I saw back in October. The real list of nominees is as follows:

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street

Let’s meet back here on 2nd/3rd March to discuss the winners.

Famous People are Given Golden Globes – 2014 Edition

The Golden Globes took place last night and boy did some people win some awards. Award ceremonies are both trivial and exciting and the Golden Globes in particular have a reputation for nominating people they think will turn up and that the voters would like to party with. That said the Golden Globes offer the combined excitement of the Emmys and the Oscars as awards are given to both TV series and films allowing Bryan Cranston to be sat feet away from Leonardo DiCaprio.

Regardless of the awards’ merits the list of winners put a smile on my face a few times this morning as actors/films/TV shows I love got given little golden orbs. This will serve as a quick summary of who won that matches who I think deserved to win and absolutely no negative feelings towards any decisions I disagree with. No Amy Adams hate. None at all. Nope…

Let’s start with the big winner 12 Years A Slave which grabbed only one prize last night but as it was the award for “Best Motion Picture – Drama” it’s hard to really complain. This is a fantastic film that could well have deserved more awards (no grumbling here, I promise) but I am really pleased that it beat the more audience-friendly Gravity to the top spot. American Hustle won the sister award of “Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy” which is a tricky category when its rivals Inside Llewyn Davis and Nebraska could arguably be seen as dramas just as easily as Philomena was. American Hustle is a fun period crime romp that puts wigs character at its core instead of a complex plot filled with endless reveals (hello Oceans Eleven!). The scene-stealing star of the film Jennifer Lawrence was rightly awarded the lengthy-titled “Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture” alongside two of her co-stars.

Gravity may have missed out on the big award but was rewarded for its visual spectacle when Alfonso Cuarón was given the award for “Best Director – Motion Picture”. This sci-fi thriller didn’t make my top ten last year but is without a doubt a visual and technical marvel requiring the most precise direction of any film out last year; the precise camera movement required to believable create outer space on a soundstage require a steady hand at the helm. If you somehow managed to miss Gravity, or simply want to marvel at it one more time, then you’ll be pleased to hear that the film is back in IMAX cinemas where you can get the full immersive effect/throw up if you’re my mum.

Over on the TV side of things the departing juggernaut that is Breaking Bad took was awarded “Best Television Series – Drama” and the man who made the show what it became through his chameleon-like acting, Bryan Cranston, took home the “Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama” award. It’s a lovely cherry on the cake for a show that never let its quality drop while others that have been less consistent (*cough* Dexter *cough*) weren’t even nominated.

The winner of “Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television” is a confusing one as in the UK it was released in cinemas, and rightly so. The award went to my 3rd favourite film of last year Behind the Candelabra and its star Michael Douglas won “Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television”. Two rightly deserved victories and wins that might not have happened had it actually had a cinematic release in the USA and was forced to take on the might of David Russell’s American Hustle.

Last but not least TV’s best current comedy Parks and Recreation finally won its first major award as producer, star, and Golden Globes co-host Amy Poehler was handed “Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy”. For anyone ignorant of the joys of this series I urge you to seek it out and stick with it when Series 3 comes to BBC Four later this year. If you don’t enjoy it I will cook you dinner either as a reward or punishment, I can’t quite decide how to classify my cooking skills.

The awards also served to highlight for me the films I need to get my eyeballs on; Blue Jasmine, Frozen, Her, Wolf of Wall Street, and Dallas Buyers Club in particular.

As for what I have seen of the ceremony itself it looks to have been a fun affair but sadly we had to get our beauty sleep so missed out on watching it live. Emma Thompson proved to be a highlight and you can see why by clicking on this orange text. As for the co-hosts of Amy Poehler and Tina Fey… have a watch below:

BAFTA Rising Star Nominees 2014

This year’s BAFTA Film Awards will be presented on the 16th of February and there is one award in particular that never fails to catch my attention; the Rising Star Award. The unique nature of the award is that the winner is voted for by the public and this is both intriguing and to the awards detriment. The award will sometimes go to the nominee with the biggest fan base or highest profile rather than an up and coming talent that could really do with the encouragement.

Yesterday BAFTA announced the five nominees as selected by a panel of industry experts and I’m here to pass judgement on them and see who I think should win.

Dane Dehaan

Dehaan first grabbed my attention with his Season 3 role in Gabriel Byrne’s dialogue heavy TV epic In Treatment as the troubled teen Jesse D’Amato. Since then he has perfected the role of troubled genius in films such as Chronicle and Kill Your Darlings. Dehaan managed to ground the supernatural Chronicle and make it all the more real by putting in a truly threatening performance. I may not have enjoyed Kill Your Darlings but it certainly wasn’t Dehaan’s fault. His next major appearance is taking over the role of Harry Osborn in The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (a casting spookily predicted by Stephen on this blog) and I for one am quietly excited. As someone with some solid but low-key performances under his belt and more mainstream fare up ahead I can easily see what makes Dehaan a candidate for the Rising Star Award.

Will Poulter

Oh Will, where did it all go wrong? Six years ago Poulter debuted in the adorable British film Son of Rambow directed by Garth Jennings in which Will played the role of Lee Carter. Since then he has taken on a few TV roles, appeared as Eustace in The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader and acted in the critically acclaimed Wild Bill. Most recently he has undone all that good work by helping to make the atrocity that was We’re the Millers. Sorry Will but I really can’t get past that film.

Lupita Nyong’o

Lupita Nyong’o has a 100% flawless record of five-star films by virtue of the fact that her sole cinematic release to date is the, as yet unreleased in the UK, 12 Years a Slave. In this future Oscar winner (trust me) Lupita plays a young slave woman who is separated from her child and suffers the worst brutality seen in the film. As an attractive young woman she suffers from the amorous advances of her “owner” and the jealous rages of his wife all while grieving for her absent child. Nyong’o’s performance is striking and heartbreaking and I’d say she deserved this award if I didn’t already think she was on her way to the Best Actress Oscar instead.

Léa Seydoux

Léa Seydoux has been working solidly in French cinema since 2006 and made a few appearances in high-profile American fare including Midnight in Paris, Inglourious Basterds, and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol. What has really brought Seydoux to everyone’s attention is her supporting role in the epic love story (and my favourite film of 2013) that is Blue is the Warmest Colour. Much as I loved her performance in the film I can’t help but think that her co-star Adèle Exarchopoulos is more deserving of a position on this list. Exarchopoulos carried the film on her shoulders and has a much less developed CV than Seydoux. All that said I am very excited to see where Léa’s career goes next particularly with her role in the remake of La belle & la bête coming up later this year.

George Mackay

Sadly, despite his recent role in the Proclaimers musical Sunshine on Leith, I have no idea who George Mackay is. Perhaps this anonymity makes him the perfect nominee for an award aimed at encouraging a burgeoning career or perhaps I just need to widen my cinematic horizons so that an actor’s entire career doesn’t pass me by again. Sorry George!

For me the winner has to be Dane DeHaan. Despite having a good crop of films behind him DeHaan has not yet become a household name and has put in a series of solid performances in smaller films. The others in the list have either risen too much in my opinion or made one bad film with Jennifer Aniston that i can’t get past. Not naming any names obviously. George Mackay prove me wrong, I’ll be sure to watch How I Live Now when it comes out on DVD.

Disagree with me? Of course you do! Have your say by voting over at the Rising Star Award page.

Mild Concern Oscars 2013 Live Ramble

One of the film calendar’s biggest events in which the rich and famous pat one another on the back is here. We’ve prepared as best we can by watching as many of the films as possible; no fiction film in the English language not in a technical category has escaped my eyes.

It has been exhausting but not as exhausting as staying up until 5 a.m. watching Seth MacFarlane host an awards ceremony longer than any of the films nominated – and most of them were far too long. People will sing, actors will cry, and Daniel Day-Lewis will almost certainly not go home empty-handed. We are also guaranteed to slip into lunacy at some point.

I will be starting with the red carpet coverage as soon as I can bring myself to do so… and find an illegal online stream to watch. Fingers crossed I can get the live blogging software to work.

EDIT: All seems to work. If you are joining us tonight, or fancy reliving it blow by blow in the morning, then open this post in a new window and all the fun should dynamically update in-front of your eyes. If it doesn’t you’re using the wrong browser and I wash my hands of you.

EDIT: How could I forget about my old friends/alcoholism enablers at NOW TV? Legal live streaming ahoy!